• A top-five wide receiver is all but guaranteed: The top six picks in most drafts should be Christian McCaffrey and the top-five wide receivers. Ja’Marr Chase is the ideal option from Picks 4-6.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Round 2 quarterbacks were league winners last year, and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description again this year and can be drafted a round later.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking fourth, fifth or sixth.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Wednesday, August 14
Round 1, Picks 4-6: Draft a wide receiver
In most leagues, Christian McCaffrey and two wide receivers will be the first three picks, leaving three more top-five wide receivers to choose from. It’s too early to pick a quarterback or tight end and a little too early for Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. The only debate here is which elite wide receivers to target. If you pick fourth, you will have options, but if you’re picking sixth, the decision is easy.
Top Target: Ja'Marr Chase (Player Profile)
Chase was WR5 as a rookie but has fallen just outside the top-10 the last two seasons because he missed time due to injury in 2022 while Joe Burrow missed time in 2023. He’s ranked among the top six in fantasy points per game each season when only including games where Burrow is healthy. Chase should benefit this season from Tyler Boyd leaving the team, allowing Chase to line up in the slot more often. All of the other wide receivers with a top-five ADP have lined up in the slot significantly more than Chase these last three seasons, and it’s time for Chase to catch up.
Possible Targets: Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson
Round 2, Picks 19-21: Draft a running back
This was the prime pick for a quarterback in the past, but Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts‘ADPs have fallen to a point where running back or wide receiver can be the focus. For the most part, running backs provide the most value here, as all of the wide receivers that are proven or have the most upside will be off the table.
Top Target: Isiah Pacheco (Player Profile)
Pacheco's biggest reason for optimism is the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t re-sign 32-year-old running back Jerick McKinnon, who had been the Chiefs' primary third down and two-minute drill back for the last two seasons. He was also a primary backup on early downs, particularly near the goal line. Those goal-line plays helped McKinnon to 13 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons. While Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get the majority of this work, this should give Pacheco a chance to improve on his RB15 season from a year ago.
Possible Targets: De'Von Achane, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne Jr., Josh Jacobs
Round 3, Picks 28-30: Draft a quarterback
Last season, the perfect pick in the second round was often a quarterback. Patrick Mahomes‘ ADP was a bit high, but either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen was typically the best pick. Those two quarterbacks were the quarterbacks most frequently on ESPN championship game teams last season. While Hurts lost Jason Kelce and Allen lost Stefon Diggs, they are both still worthy of second-round picks.
Allen and Hurts' ADP varies significantly from one site to another, as they often fall to the mid-to-late third round on some sites. Depending on the site, you could play it safe and pick them early in the second round and wait one more round for a running back.
Top Target: Josh Allen
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last four seasons. He’s the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that time. He is the only quarterback who is elite at both passing, elite at rushing and runs a lot. There is an obvious risk with the Stefon Diggs loss but the Buffalo Bills general recharge means they will need to depend more heavily on Allen, which should allow his fantasy production to remain high.
Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow
Round 4, Picks 43-45: Draft a running back
This is the last opportunity to draft a clear-cut starting running back. In particular, Joe Mixon’s ADP has fallen just enough over the past month, in part due to injury, but he has substantial upside. There are a few other clear top running back options here if Mixon is not available.
Top Target: Joe Mixon (Player Profile)
Mixon has been a consistent top-12 fantasy running back in both total rank and points per game. Although he enters a new environment in 2024, he will again play in a high-scoring offense as the Texans' clear lead running back. While he’s never been the most explosive running back, it’s fair to think he will finish in the top 12 yet again. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik recently said Mixon is “an absolute workhorse, in every regard.” The offenses Slowik has been part of generally run the ball more than average, which should continue to be true with Mixon.
Possible Targets: Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker III, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, David Montgomery
Round 5, Picks 52-54: Draft a tight end
The start of Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a young tight end with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: Kyle Pitts (Player Profile)
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Pitts' utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of offensive snaps in only two games, with a median of 64%. Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts' role this season. He’s expected to stay on the field and see a higher target rate.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive playcaller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Possible Targets: Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram, Brock Bowers
Round 6, Picks 67-69: Draft a wide receiver
The decision is easy here as your starting lineup is in good shape outside of wide receiver. Luckily, several wide receivers are either the clear top option on their team or a proven second option that’s in a new situation this year.
Top Target: Terry McLaurin (Player Profile)
McLaurin is the perfect example of a good, dependable wide receiver. He hasn’t missed a game over the last three seasons after missing just three games in his first two. He’s caught at least 77 passes and racked up 1,000-plus yards in each of the last four years. Even though the Washington Commanders have gone through a lot of changes this offseason, we can expect a lot more of the same for McLaurin.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley
Round 7, Picks 76-78: Draft a wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries and you can draft more running backs and wide receivers, allowing you to make lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of snaps from Weeks 14 to 17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of his team's offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs.
Possible Targets: Diontae Johnson, Hollywood Brown, Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Xavier Worthy
Round 8, Picks 91-93: Draft a running back
This is a spot to pick a running back part of a committee. The vast majority of the backs available fit that description, but if Devin Singletary is still available, it’s best to pick him up, as he’s the rare lead running back that falls in drafts. While running back is a strength of this team, the running backs in this tier fly off the board quickly, and the quality of running back won’t be nearly the same by Round 10.
Top Target: Devin Singletary (Player Profile)
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner, with a 73.0-plus PFF rushing grade every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants this season and should be the featured running back. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It's also possible that he won't play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson Jr., Tyjae Spears, Austin Ekeler, Chase Brown
Round 9, Picks 100-102: Draft a wide receiver or running back
Wide receiver is the best option here, but there is still an important decision to make. You can draft a proven veteran or one of the younger wide receivers in the league. Tyler Lockett or Courtland Sutton should beat their ADPs if they stay healthy and can be fantasy starters, but they are unlikely to finish among the top 24 without some touchdown luck. The younger wide receivers are less likely to beat their ADP, but they have a higher chance of being an elite wide receiver this season. The right decision likely depends on how risky the previous wide receivers picked have been. There are some running back options here, particularly if you went wide receiver heavy early and haven’t picked a primary backup until now.
Top Target: Courtland Sutton (Player Profile)
Sutton has finished over 60% of his games as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver each of the last two seasons but has rarely finished among the top 12. Sutton is the clear top wide receiver on the Denver Broncos‘ depth chart after trading away his main competition Jerry Jeudy. If Sutton reports to training camp despite his contract situation or if he receives a new contract, he’s a perfect complementary piece to a team drafting many wide receivers.
Possible Targets: Devin Singletary, Brian Thomas Jr., Chase Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford
Round 10, Picks 115-117: Draft a running back or wide receiver
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Jerome Ford
Last season, Ford was the Cleveland Browns primary running back while Nick Chubb was out for the year. He finished at RB16 with a top-24 finish in 12 weeks. Chubb will potentially return this season, but it’s unclear when he will be back and to what extent he will be able to play. Ford often split time with Kareem Hunt last season and will likely split with D’Onta Foreman for part of the season and Chubb for the other part. While that split might not leave Ford as a top-10 running back anytime soon, several more weeks in the top 24 is a clear possibility.
Possible Targets: Tyler Lockett, Jakobi Meyers, Brandin Cooks, Zach Charbonnet, Curtis Samuel
Round 11, Picks 124-126: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Las Vegas Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Romeo Doubs, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer
Round 12, Picks 139-141: Draft a running back
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard (Player Profile)
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 season, playing at least 64% of his team's offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those games including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Panthers added Jonathon Brooks in the draft as the first running back selected, but he is coming off a torn ACL. A few weeks ago, it was reported that Brooks still has a ways to go in his recovery and will likely be eased into training camp. Hubbard has a decent chance to be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Tyler Allgeier, Rico Dowdle, Antonio Gibson, Ty Chandler, Jaleel McLaughlin
Round 13, Picks 148-150: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Dontayvion Wicks
The Packers wide receiver is currently fourth on the depth chart but was the highest-graded wide receiver of the top four last season. In the first preseason game, he rotated in on the third offensive play of the game and caught a 65-yard touchdown pass. There is a chance he spends all season as a backup, but at this point, it’s good to draft for upside, and there is a chance he can become a full-time starter and the top outside wide receiver for one of the league's better offenses in the league.
Possible Targets: Adam Thielen, Jahan Dotson, Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs, Demarcus Robinson
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
