Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff WriterOct 2, 2012, 05:00 PM
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- Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.
LAS VEGAS -- One of the biggest criticisms of any sports poll/ranking is that it's posted too early, before anyone knows how good or bad the current teams are. For instance, most NFL rankings out there had the Green Bay Packers as the top team heading into Week 1. They promptly lost their opener. That put the New England Patriots into the top spot, before they lost in Week 2. And then the widely anointed San Francisco 49ers lost in Week 3.
When we launched the Vegas NFL Bettor's Poll last week, we tried to avoid that by having at least three games under every team's belt.
So far, so good, as our three top teams -- the Houston Texans, Patriots and 49ers -- justified our love over the weekend with dominating performances. They were upgraded by half a point in this week's power ratings, but the biggest improvement ended up being from the Washington Redskins after their 24-22 upset win at Tampa Bay, with the Minnesota Vikings getting a one-point bump off their 20-13 road win at Detroit.
The biggest drop this week came from the New York Jets, as their stock plummeted two full points after their 34-0 loss to the 49ers, while the Dallas Cowboys also took a 1.5-point dip off their lackluster loss at home to the Chicago Bears on Monday night.
The Bettor's Poll includes the NFL power ratings from handicappers Teddy Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio and yours truly, Dave Tuley. Each of our scales is different, but I converted them all to where the midpoint would be 21. The poll is meant to compare the relative strength of the teams as they're performing right now, and how we'd set a line for the teams meeting on a neutral field. The goal is to compare the numbers and find value against the lines at your disposal.
Remember, there are a variety of factors you should weigh when betting games each week. But we hope that the Bettor's Poll is one tool you'll consult, along with your other systems.
Here is the Week 5 Vegas NFL Bettor's Poll:
Value in the lines for Week 5
Last week, we pointed out seven possible plays based on the difference between the power ratings here and the numbers that are available in the betting marketplace. Those suggestions went 4-3 against the spread. Again this week, the majority of the numbers are pretty much spot-on, but there are seven differences that could be possible plays according to our ratings. (Note: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings and meant to be used in your own handicapping.)
I'll be back with my own picks on ESPN Insider on Friday:
Washington Redskins plus-3 versus Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta is five points better on the raw numbers, but when giving Washington 2.5 points for home-field advantage, that makes the Falcons just 2.5 points better and we're getting plus-3 with the Skins.
Philadelphia Eagles plus 3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers: Philly is half a point better in our rankings, so even with the Steelers having home-field advantage, that takes them to just minus-2, yet we're getting more than a field goal with the Eagles. A field goal game works for our purposes, plus the Eagles are getting good at these narrow victories.
New York Giants minus-10 versus Cleveland Browns: New York is nine points better on the raw numbers, and with home field that takes it up to minus-11.5, yet bettors have to lay just 10 points for the Giants right now.
Chicago Bears minus-4 at Jacksonville Jaguars: This line will likely come higher after the Bears' rout of the Cowboys, but we still have the Bears 10 points ahead of the Jags on the raw numbers, and with Jacksonville's negligible home-field advantage, the Bears still are more than a touchdown better and laying a much shorter number.
Denver Broncos plus-7 at New England Patriots: New England is rated just three points ahead of Denver, so even with a full three points for home field, that leaves the number still short of the full seven points the Broncos are getting.
San Diego Chargers plus-3 versus New Orleans Saints: San Diego is only a point better in our ratings, and even with the Saints getting a full three points for home field, that leaves the number short of a full field goal.
New York Jets plus-7.5 versus Houston Texans: Houston is our No. 1 team, but while they're 8.5 points ahead in the power ratings, with the Jets having home field, that takes the difference under a touchdown, yet the Jets are getting 7.5.
We hope this helps. Compare to your own handicapping and good luck.
Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
